2022 battery raw material cost increasing crazely in past monthes rechargeable lithium li ion polymer battery
The average cost of lithium ion battery pack had decreased almost 90 percent from 2010 to 2020. At 2021, the cost dropped to $132 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF(Bloomberg NEF), but the declines was smaller than expected. 2022 will be the first time that average battery cost risen up, experts told us, although estimates vary for exactly how much battery cost will raise up by the end of 2022.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence expects approximately 10 percent, while Wood Mackenzie expects a climbing of 20 percent the whole year, per primary estimates each establishment participated with Emerging Tech Brew.
“We have 100 sure that all have been raised up at this time, ”Yayoi, energy storage manager at BNEF, spoke to us. “Average battery pack price would raise up to $135 per kilo watt hour in this year. ”Although with this increasing in battery cost, experts don’t anticipate much impact on the EV trends over the coming ten or twenty years.
“Actual metal, amount of that available globally has not varied and the orientation that the automotive industry and all governments are taking hasn’t varied either, ” Ram, the captain of road transportation at Wood Mackenzie, informed us. “It’s an important enhance, but we do not think it affects the long time of battery cost or electric vehicle adoption. ”
Expense pressures
A cause of batteries becoming more costly is that the expense of battery materials, especially lithium, nickel, and cobalt, soared starts at the late 2021. It has a significant afftects today because as manufacturing efficiencies raise and the expense of production declines, materials expense start to constitute high and high of the total. Anode and cathode materials altogether can constitute as much as 70 percent of the whole battery expense currently, said by Rawles. When there is not a deficiency of these important metals, constraints in the markets will lead to higher mining expense, which will be spread on to battery producers. Other element such as the war at Ukraine and sanctions in Russia, which is the main nickel material supplier, have devoted an even “tighter squeeze” since last month, Sekine pointed out.
Raising up the supply of the materiel would decrease costs, but it will take time. Enhancing an existed mine may take 2 or 3 years and start a new one cost around 6 years, if all goes well, she said. “Battery industry is expanding extremely quickly, it indicates that lots of mining volume have to be generated, in order to search out mineral, it cost much time,” Sekine said. “So it is simply regarding time concerning to that.”
Onward supply chain and logistics interrupted also plays important role on the price tendency, Said by Sekine .
America is centralizing on enhancing the internal supply of the materials. In the last of March, President Biden appealed the Defense Protection Act to offer official assistance to enhance crucial minerals as a business of national safety in the energy exorbitance. He listed lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and manganese specially.
“Besides expense, there is an extremely strategic push, specially in the USA, for safe supply chains,” Sekine said. “I suppose it is very vague that exact mining ability can be aroused via this, so it is what we all are expecting for.”
look into the future
BNEF does not think this price tendency to last long. Battery cost may start to decrease once more at last of next year, causing an entire decrease at cost for the year, Sekine said.
“It is concerned to the reality that we fully understand there will be extra nickel mineral approaching by the end of 2022 at ID. We understand there is a few mines that generate lithium capacity in Australia and Chile,” she said.
Other estimates forecast that cost will not start decrease until 2024. For consumers, higher price may together with other problems such as inflation and supply chain issues, equal more costly electric vehicles in the near future. Automakers such as Rivian and Tesla had already noticed price raising months ago, cite the increasing in raw materials and logistics expense.
It’s still not clear simply how much effect the higher cost tags may have on electric vehicles adoption after a record year of electric vehicles sales at last year. Worldwide electric vehicles sales redoubled at 2021 compared to 2020, to 6.6 million EVS, and Wood Mackenzie forecasts that amount will grow to approximately 9.3 million 2022, in spite of any battery price increases.
Affected by the raw material increasing, almost all rechargeable batteries (lithium ion battery, lithium polymer battery, Nimh battery, lifepo4 battery) have to raise up the price. from 5% to 100% depend on battery model.
Lithium ion cylindrical battery cell: increasing 30% to 200%
Lithium polymer battery cell: increasing 30% to 80%
Nimh battery: increasing 50% to 80%
Prismatic battery cell: increasing 30% to 60%
18650 1200mAh: increasing 120%
18650 1500mAh: increasing 100%
18650 1800mAh: increasing 90%
18650 2000mAh: increasing 80%
18650 2200mAh: increasing 80%
18650 2400mAh: increasing 90%
18650 2500mAh: increasing 60%
18650 2600mAh: increasing 70%
18650 3000mAh: increasing 40%
18650 3500mAh: increasing 30%
21700 5000mAh: increasing 30%
3.2v 32700 6000mAh: increasing 30%
